Risk Identification


Introduction

This section is the identification of system risks.  System risks are those that are present in Authorisation's systems and elements and once created are assessed during internal audits of the system.  The assessment of the risks determines how well the applicable system is being managed and provides a measurement of safety risk.  


Risk measurement is a combination of determining how frequently ('the Likelihood') a described risks is likely to occur and the what the result would be if the described risk actually occurred, ('the consequence') .


This section is used to describe those risks that are present in the particular auditable system being considered. The risk ratings are determined on the basis that the risk is untreated.  That is the described risk has no risk mitigation applied to it.  The overall risk result is termed the 'Untreated Risk result', a combination of the untreated likelihood selection and the untreated consequence selection.


Describing risks

Risks are described and must be applicable to the Authorisation type, system and element.  The risk description must have a description of the likelihood and a description of the consequence should the risk be shown to occur.


An example of an AOC, Personnel (system), Crew Scheduling (element) risk could be:

Flight crew are rostered for and conduct a flight in a fatigued state, resulting in flight deviation outside of the desired flight path.


In the example above the yellow highlighted section represents the untreated likelihood statement and the red highlighted statement represents the untreated consequence.  During an audit of this system one of the risk factors to assess would be how well the organisation guards (the defences) against this sort of risk occurring. The result of this risk assessment would be the treated result.


An example of likelihood treatment in this case could be a dedicated well trained crew rostering person and a fatigue reporting safety policy.

An example of consequence treatment in this case might be the provision of 2 crew instead of 1.  Note that no singular factor is likely to ensure a risk is adequately mitigated (treated).


Before entering risks into the program conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risks that the organisation is exposed to and group them under the appropriate authorisation, system and element.


The CASA Surveillance Manual (CSM) contains significant help on systems and elements as well as areas that will be audited.  The CSM can be found here.

Enter a description of the risk in the box "Describe the risk' and with reference to the Likelihood chart and the 'Consequence Word Picture' click the appropriate combined number box on the chart.  E.G. Likelihood = 3 and Consequence = 4 = Untreated Result of 7 .


Once selected the Unmitigated values (untreated) will be displayed in the boxes above the 'Save Risk' button. Click the button to save the risk.